What will happen to Argentina’s capital controls in 2025?

During our recent visit to Argentina, we engaged with various legal and economic experts to gather insights on the future of the nation's capital controls. Despite differing opinions among these specialists, we identified key events in 2025 that warrant close attention.

Despite some positive developments - such as controlled inflation rates, gradual increases in international reserves, and the political landscape shaped by Trump's win in the US - it's essential to remain vigilant. Key events to watch include the March harvest and the midterm elections in October 2025. Any significant changes, like a possible drought or a shift in Milei’s popularity, could prompt more aggressive restrictions.

A bountiful harvest in March could lead to several significant economic impacts: it may increase export revenues, boosting U.S. dollar reserves and potentially strengthening the Argentine peso. This could allow the government to ease some stringent currency controls, and stabilize inflation. The overall effect will also depend on the current political and economic climate.

If Milei is facing high pressure to stabilize the economy or his popularity is down, they might be more inclined to use the agricultural sector's success as a lever to introduce reforms or relax controls.

As always, we will continue monitoring these developments and keep you informed. For a more detailed explanation or to address any specific inquiries, feel free to reach out to us at 604-643-0101 or at cashgroup@cgf.com.